Time was when ‘young Alex’ could do no wrong. His mastery of the media north and south of the border was undisputed. His political canniness outwitted all-comers at FMQs. And SNP electoral strategy was required reading for politicos of all stripes.
But now he rocks from one defeat to another. The Decline (we have, admittedly, yet to reach The Fall) began with the SNP’s failure to win Glasgow Council – despite prideful boasts of likely victory beforehand.
Decline gathered pace though with the grandiloquence of the launch of the independence campaign itself. But amongst all the pomp and pageantry of the curious setting of a West Edinburgh cinema park and bowling facility in the shadow of the town’s breweries, the problems for Salmond and his glorious cause were already to be found waiting in the wings: just who was the independence campaign? Just the SNP? Just Alex Salmond? Anyone else? At all?
From there it was just a hop, skip and jump to the more serious questions of independence: to NATO or not to NATO? Will the Bank of, ahem, England set Scottish interest rates? And, whisper it, why would an independent Scotland get to keep Scotland’s oil even as England gets lumped with RBS’s debts? These were big questions. Alex didn’t just lack big answers, often he lacked any realistic answer at all.
Then these problems started creeping in at Holyrood where an increasingly confident Johann Lamont bested Salmond with surprising regularity. Her punches on matters policy and political began to reveal a new side of young Alex (or an old side for those of us that remember pre-devo Alex): tetchy, arrogant and slick – just like all the other greasy old pols). Between the Better Together campaign’s strong launch with its feel-good David Axelrod-esque emphasis on people’s stories, relentlessly upbeat message and tone, and smart use of politicians less as speakers and more as microphone-handlers for the audience, the SNP lost their hold on the momentum of Scottish politics and have since found regaining the initiative to be beyond them.
Then came the Olympics. First there was Salmond’s call for Scots to support the “Scotlympians” – which in the context of a gloriously British Opening Ceremony was a misjudgement of the public’s mood. Now comes the revelation that the Scottish taxpayer is expected to further indulge Alex’s vanity by shelling out £25,000 per day throughout the Olympics for a privately hired ‘Scotland House’on Pall Mall instead of using the regular government facilities of Dover House, just round the corner.
There comes a time in all strategies and political careers at which victories turn into defeats. At which the old tricks are scorned by the gallery that used to cheer for them and the benefit of the doubt goes to the opposition, not the incumbent. That’s what’s happening to Alex Salmond.
2012 has thus far been the story of Alex Salmond’s decline. At this rate of descent his foes can soon look forward to The Fall – coming to an Independence Referendum near you c.2014.
Much is made by the SNP of Scotland’s skills and its past history of innovation and achievement. Scottish people are well represented among “greats” from Burns and David Hume to Alexander Graham Bell, John Logie Baird, Thomas Telford, James Watt and Alexander Fleming. In 2012 it is not enough to have skills. How are they to be exploited to provide Scotland with more on its own than its share of the sum of the UK’s parts? How will Scotland be defended? Or will it be contented with “independence” for its own inherent cultural superiority even if its standard of living falls?
The sournois triangulation of not having to defend yourself, because nobody will attack you if you pursue a neutral foreign policy, was of little use to Scandinavia from 1939-1945.
Previous posts point to the cost of living in Eire and I point to the state of its banks and construction industry. Moving
from being part of the UK to part of a much larger EU did Eire little good. The result may be the same for Scotland. Indeed, because of the importance of the UK’s links with Eire, we added to their EU support with a further loan.
Much is made of Norway and I well remember the debate on the Euro at our European Works Council general meeting in Sweden. Inflation and wages brought a smart retort from the Norwegian delegate who pointed out that you do not have to be in the Euro to have high prices. His prices in Krone were already as much as his wages would bear.
Alex Salmond has indeed lost his touch. His appeal to independence might have worked when he was bashing the Thatcherite ravaging of Scotland’s industrial base. It may still appeal while he is bashing the coalition. But he does not say what independence means except to snatch all the assets he can grab (eg oil) and deny all the liabilities he hopes he can shuffle off (eg UK bail-outs of Scottish banks destroyed by Scottish boards of directors).
We are no longer in the age of the pioneering explorer but in an age of global integration. My instincts are that, if Scotland sends its own Foreign Secretary to the EU to argue down England’s Foreign Secretary and so on with economics and defence, the whole UK will end up with less than the sum of its parts. Scotland’s much smaller “independent” population will end up with even less.
Bear in mind that Scotland would have its own “independent” Parliament. Is anyone running odds on what happens if the SNP fails to deliver for an “independent” Scotland and it ends up with a Scottish Independent Tory Government?
Thanks Marcus. I’d often wondered if jingoism still existed in the new, right wing Labour party.
Seems it still does.
I hold no sentimental attachment to Scotland remaining part of the UK. What I fail to understand is how Scotland will flourish as an independant country bearing in mind its geography. Has the SNP explained how Scotland will benefit economically in terms of defence, banking, health, transport, environment, export, import, etc?. You have only have to look at the cost of living in Eire (one of the most expensive countries in the world) to see the outcome of a small land mass becoming an independent country. Independence is to Alex Salmond what the EU is to Cameron. The leader of a party pandering to his backbenchers.
You Nats can laud Salmond to high heaven all you like, you can even point out the occasional healthy-looking poll for the SNP, granted. But can you do the same with the Party’s raison detre? Where’s the poll that suggests Scots are crying out for land and freedom from the yoke of London? Not saying it can’t happen but without it, the Decline and Fall of Alex Salmond is inevitable.
Has the First Minister lost his touch,I hardly think so.He seems to be having a quiet time just now,maybe like when he left the top SNP job for a few years,and rest up for a while,you know Rest and recuperation,ready for the real fight he also needs a wee break after all he is going up against a foe that is ten times the SNP number,and supposedly international politicians,he will be repeating the same thing for each of them as they just ask the same questions over and over,he needs his strength ,well we need him to be strong for Scotland’s sake,to take on the Tories,first then the Lib-Dems and finally the conniving Labour mob.Oh we need him at his best and a wee break to revitalise and regain his strength is what we need his honesty,and that is what gets to the media they have all the dishonest unionists and they have to fabricate stories about the First Minister Mr.Alex Salmond.Keep on Alex your doing us proud,Scotland needs you.
You wish
This is the biggest load of tripe I have read in along time. I do not know what planet ‘young Marcus’ is on but it certainly is not planet Scotland! A recent Sunday Times poll put the SNP two points up on its’ fantastic 2011 performance and miles ahead in all sections of Scottish society.
‘Young Marcus’ and the Scottish Fabians might be wishing but it aint happening!
When you say Lamont ‘bested Salmond’…..do you watch a different edition of FMQs to everybody else (apart from Carroll and McKenna at the Grauniad)?
Lamont reads from a prepared crib-sheet and when her points are undermined by tricky things …like arithmetic for example…she just carries on regardless. It’s not a question of Salmond being nay good, it;s a question of how bad is Lamont. If she and Darling are going to lead the ‘No’ campaign we should all ensure that our passports are up to date.
RBS debts….since RBS do less than 10% of their business in Scotland one might expect that less than 10% of their debts might accrue there. NatWest was actually the biggest problem for RBS, so what proportion of NatWest debt do you think Scotland should carry?
if, after more than 5 years in government, your poll standing and approval ratings are massively better than anyone else’s it’s questionable as to whether that is a really a decline. if there were a GE tomorrow a reasonable percentage vote-share prediction would be 40 (gnats) 30 (Labour) 15 (tories) 10 (glib-dumbs) and 10 for others. That would probably give the gnats more seats than Labour in Scotland since they would benefit from FPTP as Labour has in the past…it might be even more disproportionate since the glib-dumbs will lose at least 7 or 8 Scottish seats. Unless a unionist party adopts something very close to FFA and abolishes the Supreme Court (it is a breach of the Treaty of Union) the result might actually be even worse. If the gnats are to be beaten then Labour (and the others I suppose) need to adopt policies that the electors actually like.. No sign of that so far.
I would prefer to be more polite than answering as “uglyfatbloke” the contributor who wrote this on 01.08.12:
“RBS debts….since RBS do less than 10% of their business in Scotland one might expect that less than 10% of their debts might accrue there. NatWest was actually the biggest problem for RBS, so what proportion of NatWest debt do you think Scotland should carry?”
I would be pleased to learn in what respect NatWest was at the root of the fall of RBS as opposed to over-leveraging the purchase of ABN AMRO in a Dutch (please excuse the pun) Auction with Barclays. Unfortunately , the RBS board was essentially Scottish as to its Chairman and CEO who were the principal actors.
What about Lloyds Banking Group? Lloyds TSB took over HBOS – a bank headquartered in Scotland that failed. Alex Salmond wants all the assets that are headquartered in Scotland (except those related to the jobs needed to defend Scotland) so I am afraid he has to take the rough with the smooth. If he cannot do that, he truly is pooped. (The rough in this case being the £100 billion that would have been needed to allow HBOS to continue trading).
Wishful fantasies appear to be still order of the day in Labour party circles, then.
The funny thing is that people in Scotland still favour the SNP government, because they have more people friendly, progressive policies than for any of the Scottish regional branches of any of the UK parties.
Until Labour or some other party offers a strong credible alternative, this is not going to change
(PS I am not, nor never was a member of the SNP but very left wing, but I am very angry with the Labour party for not supporting the rainbow coalition at the last GE, thus letting the Tories rule again)
The ‘rainbow coalition’ would’ve collapsed within months. The wider UK public would not have accepted Brown for any longer. Clegg made it clear (as shown in Brown at 10) that the idea qas appealing but that Brown would have to go before it could happen. The press, which then was vehemently pro-Tory/LibDem would have hounded it and even lampooned the idea as the govt of the loosers.
I dont like the Tories at all but that rainbow coalition would’ve collapsed and led to a clear Tory majority. As it is they are hamstrung by the LibDems from the worst of their policies. Salmond knows that, for him itd be better to have a Tory majority in Westminster primarily from England to break up the UK. As it is he wins both ways as he can bash Labour fpr ‘letting’ them in, whereas he knows it was the only outcome after the last election.