New Fabian analysis shows that a decision by Nick Clegg to join forces with David Cameron will provide an opportunity for a major electoral revival by Labour at a second election in 2010 – and potentially enough for Labour to regain its majority. It may also place many Lib Dem MPs in danger of being unseated. Tim Horton, Research Director at the Fabian Society, who produced the analysis, said: “Many Lib Dem voters are progressive and many voted for the Lib Dems as a way to keep the Tories out.” The briefing paper, Electoral Opportunities for Labour from a Lib-Tory Pact, can be downloaded here.

Tim Horton, Research Director at the Fabian Society, who produced the analysis, said: “Many Lib Dem voters are progressive and many voted for the Lib Dems as a way to keep the Tories out. They would be outraged by pact between Cameron and Clegg.” 

The analysis notes that, in polling just before the election, 43 per cent of Lib Dem voters described themselves as centre-left or left, compared to 29 per cent who described themselves as centrist and just 9 per cent who described themselves as centre-right or right. Similarly, 39 per cent of Lib Dem voters described the Liberal Democrat party as being centre-left or left, compared to 33 per cent of Lib Dem voters who described the party as being centrist and just 5 per cent who described the party as being centre-right or right

This suggests that somewhere between a third and a half of Lib Dem voters could find themselves alienated by Clegg’s decision.

Horton argues that the alienation of progressive Liberal Democrat voters from a Liberal-Tory pact would suddenly put scores of seats into play for the Labour Party at a second election in 2010: “At a national level, the Lib Dems have positioned themselves as opponents of the Tories for the last two decades. If the Lib Dems were to support the Tories in the new parliament, that would fundamentally alter the electoral dynamics of many seats. There could be a sea change,” said Horton.

“A Lib-Tory pact would make Labour the sole source of opposition to the Conservatives in many seats, allowing Labour to persuade many former Lib Dem voters to switch to them.”

The analysis shows that several Lib Dem MP’s would be at risk from such a Labour advance. There are at 15 Lib Dem seats that would fall to Labour if just one-in-five of their voters switched to Labour.

* These would include all five gains that the Lib Dems made from Labour on Thursday night – Norwich South, Bradford East, Brent Central, Burnley, and Redcar.

* The Lib Dems would be hit in both their university seats like Manchester, Bristol and Cardiff, as well as in seats relying on ‘working-class’ support, like Bradford, Burnley and Redcar

* Several Lib Dem MPs, including frontbenchers Sarah Teather and Jo Swinson, are even more vulnerable, falling if just one-in-ten Lib Dem voters defects to Labour in protest.

Just as importantly, the analysis shows that in many other constituencies Labour could take a large number of seats back off the Conservatives with relatively modest defections from the Lib Dems to Labour. There are 25 seats that would swing back from the Conservatives to Labour if just one-in-five Lib Dem voters in these seats switches to Labour. These would include many seats in the South and the Midlands that Labour lost at the General Election, such as Hendon, Thurrock, Broxtowe, Bedford, and Hove, as well as the Tories’ prized gain in the North East, Stockton South.

Fifty-five seats would swing back to Labour if one-in-two Lib Dem voters in these seats switched to Labour. Along with seats taken off the Lib Dems, this could be enough for Labour to regain a majority at a possible second election in 2010.

Tim Horton said: “There is an important opportunity here for electoral revival even before Labour gets a single vote back from the Tories,” said Horton.

Download the full report